In the spirit of these fun daydreams about worlds that might be, let's wonder what technology might be like in the future. I feel kind of stupid saying this, but I'm pretty sure the best place to look to catch glimpses of future technology is science fiction books and movies. As nerdy as sci-fi might be, I bet it forecasted many of our major advances in technology -- flying machines, space exploration, the internet, etc.
What's next? What will the next 10, 30, 50, 200 years see? Here are some of my thoughts:
Coming soon(ish)
Really good talk-to-text software. It seems like this should already be here. As someone who never really got the whole "typing" thing, I've been waiting for this to arrive and be cheap for years. I don't know how important this technology will be, but it would certainly be convenient for those of us who type awkwardly and like the sound of our own voice. Looking further ahead, I think this will be integrated into everything, so that we will be able to speak our emails, text messages, facebook statuses, school papers... you get the idea. Everything we now type.
I can't think of anything else right now for this category. Help me.
Things that will happen, but I've resigned to not seeing them in my lifetime
Hoverboards. My heart breaks when I watch Back to the Future Part 2 and have to live with the reality that hoverboards don't exist. It's one of those inventions that just seems like it should work. You can easily picture a board that cruises along quickly about 2-3 feet above the ground. The tricky part, of course, would be for the board to take you along with it instead of just leaving you on your butt. But with the technology in Segways that allows them to adjust to your shifts in weight without letting you fall, this seems like it could eventually happen. I don't actually necessarily think this will come after my lifetime, but I've had to brace myself for that possibility. Otherwise the crushed hopes of each new hoverless year might destroy me.
A bunch of technologies that respond to your thoughts. I think the day will come when we understand the human brain a lot more than we do now. It seems conceivable that we could find a way to "sync up" certain machines with our brain to allow for them to respond to thought commands. The possibilities with this seem endless.
Sci-fi Fail (things that will never happen)
Time machines. I love dreaming about time travel, and puzzling out the paradoxes that it would present. In other words, I'm the biggest nerd you've ever met. And yet, I'm pretty sure there are certain things we can dream up that will never happen. The biggest evidence for time travel's not happening is perhaps the fact that we're not constantly (or ever) bombarded by curious time-travelers from the future (or from the past?). But there are real scientists doing real research on the possibility of sending light back in time or something.
Teleportation devices. I don't think there will ever be a guy named Scottie beaming people up. The only "real" reason I can give for this is that I think teleportation (along with time travel) would require movement faster than the speed of light, and I'm accepting physicists' theories that this isn't possible for any kind of particle.
All right, what new inventions, gadgets, or showdowns with centuries-old foes are you waiting for?
Jon
My equivalent to your Hoverboard feelings is Virtual Reality. I realize there are lame attempts at virtual reality, but I want to be able to be fully present in a complete virtual world. This is something I have longed for since a very young age, but I fear it may not happen in my time.
ReplyDeleteOh, and how about an elevator to space? I read a few years back that this was in the works. Where is it guys?
ReplyDeleteI dont know if this falls under your "time machine" category but i would really like to have a machine that would transport my body to different places in the world. fast and for cheap. So my schedule could look a little like, breakfast in chicago. lunch in Maracaibo. Tea in London. Dinner in Paris and then movies in Morgantown.
ReplyDeleteoh it would be great if this machine could also give me money to buy all these meals.
funny timing of this... Chuck's mom just told me about his childhood journal of 'what will the year 2010 be like' - something about no more wheels on our cars/flying around... ha.
ReplyDeleteThe talk-to-text is definitely around the corner, I feel- esp for Dr's/healthcare professionals who have to write so much on the job... this will be tremendous in efficiency.
Also, I'm sort of scared of the new cars that will be around... I feel they are all getting smaller and not so safe-looking.
Cars that drive themselves have to be in the not-too-distant future. They've already got them parking themselves, alerting drivers when they're backing too close to something, and applying automatic response braking. The technology exists. What might have to happen for it to become reality is a complete overhaul of the transportation system - roads that somehow respond to the cars traveling on them via a giant computer network. And all the present, boring, human-operated cars would probably all have to be simultaneously destroyed. It's hard to imagine human-controlled cars sharing the road with robotic smartcars. I, for one, is a human operator who would love to mess with the smartcars at full speed. I'm sure there are others.
ReplyDeleteMy best mental picture of this is the transportation network in the underrated and amazingly sweet movie Minority Report.
And to me, cars that drive themselves is almost as good as teleportation. If I can sit back and watch tv or work or accomplish annoying, time-consuming personal hygiene tasks like clipping toenails or shaving nose hair while the car takes me where I need to go, bonus! It would be like being a kid again. Only when I was a kid the DVD player wasn't invented and all we had for entertainment was the Car Bingo game that always resulted in the same combination of answers because we always drove to the same places.
audio command electronics - specifically the passive entertainment devices like televisions, radios. considering our cars and telephones can now do it after we touch a button to alert the devices before the prompt, i suspect this technology will be widespread within the next decade, without first needing a prompt.
ReplyDeletekeyless entry homes. we have the tech now, just not for the cost that anyone would want.
there will be an epic showdown with our century-old foe cancer. and it will win.
it will destroy mankind and possibly in a future that isn't so far off considering our current rates. within 5-7 generations, i suspect cancer incidence in maybe one of every two people or maybe higher. incidence exploded in the late 80s as we figured out how to spot it and trailed off until the present as we figured out how to slow it down and send it into remission. but it will never go away.
in a related topic, we are trying to sterilize the world and instead are wiping out our own immune systems. the world is becoming too sanitary and in turn we are losing our ability to combat any type of disease. as such, a significant disease that is already trouble to combat - cancer - will only become tougher. and our healthcare system isn't going to catch up anytime soon.
but to end on a much brighter note, 100% synchronization and communication between our electronics. you can set your dvr from your phone, or watch tv on it. your computer can sync calendars on various platforms or turn off/on your home security system or lights. your gaming system is a centralized entertainment center, linking music, movies, games and even productive files. obviously, all among other things. in the incredibly near future, you won't be able to tell the difference between an mp3 player that makes phone calls and a phone that plays music, or a computer and a phone. they will all be essentially the same device, just in different sizes. especially if the talk-to-text shows up soon.
oh, and not only instantaneous computing (thanks to new "photonic" computer chips http://bit.ly/aZLAqu ) but i can also foresee optional predictive computing.
hopefully something more like Google Instant and less like Bing. that's just creepy.
I completely agree with Marty's hoverboard being the ultimate technological heart-throb! I would, however, suggest that thought-responsive devices should be placed in the Coming Soon(ish) category. Eventually their practicality and overall awesomeness will blow something like this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,2845,2363002,00.asp
out of the water, but the concept is proven and not entirely out of reach for the individual.
I also picture (perhaps in our lifetimes) a culmination of the trend towards synchronization, both of data and devices. Cloud computing will be the norm and internet speeds will continue to climb, meaning all your files can be stored (or retrieved) from anywhere. And most people will be down to 1 (probably Apple-like) device that will seamlessly combine all the functions typically found separately on a computer, cell phone, camera, mp3 player, etc. The lines are already being blurred - perhaps adding projectors to an iPhone? Providing a large enough screen wherever you go, and maybe even a virtual full-sized keyboard...
The focus there was almost entirely on extrapolating current trends rather than using my own imagination or those of various sci-fi novelists... So I would end with some sort of chip implanted in your head that could 'intersect' with your brain, giving you top secret visual search results, super-spy-like powers, and a ridiculously gorgeous girlfriend.
Great ideas, everyone. Keep them coming!
ReplyDeleteJeromie, a friend of mine from the neuro department at Pitt also told me they've gotten a similar system to respond to monkey's thoughts so that the monkey can feed itself, via thought, with a robotic claw. Also, sweet Chuck reference. I missed the season premier tonight, and I'm really excited to watch it.
Tim, I agree about virtual reality, but I can't help but think it would actually resemble a real-life experience so much that, unlike when I play something obviously fake like Final Fantasy 7, I would feel guilty about not being out there in the world, doing actual 3-D sensory things.
Jason, I love "To me, cars that drive themselves is almost as good as teleportation."
"BB" - thanks! My roomate was giving me a hard time about how talk-to-text is already good enough and wouldn't be useful, blah blah negative Nancy blah... I'm glad you've supplied an important professional application.
Ah yes, I really must don my technologist hat and have a stab at this. Great blog idea, Jon! :) -- Chris G
ReplyDeleteSo-called "cloud computing" is the tip of the iceberg of a massive technology revolution that will soon (next 10-20 years) make the Web and iPhone look ridiculously backwards. I refer to this as Pervasive Computing -- the total convergence of all things digital into a seamlessly-woven information environment that "follows you" and becomes whatever you need, whenever you need it, using whatever devices are around you. It's not that people will have one device that does everything. It's that all of their devices will work together in perfect concert. There will be no more incompatibility, no more upgrades, no more manual data shuffling, no more loading software or logging into webpages, no more "platforms" like PC vs. Mac and iPhone vs. Android and Google vs. Yahoo. There will be just one big "cloud" of interoperability, driven by mass market commoditization and a "few" good universal standards for data representation and processing. Simultaneously, hardware will become essentially disposable. (low cost, no setup, no worry about data loss). But this convergence sounds like Big Brother, right? Not if it's decentralized. For example, instead of using Facebook or other social networking websites, you'll communicate directly and securely with your friends, without your information passing through a 3rd party, rather in "P2P" fashion. Likewise all your private information (photos, docs, etc.) will be stored in your own home but be automatically backed up (in encrypted form) among friends, family, and commercial storage services. User-facing software itself will be more like building blocks which are wired together on the fly to become whatever is needed. There will be no more applications -- just views of information and methods of creating/editing information. This will in turn yield a paperless society (who really wants a static physical representation of information?! or, almost as bad, a virtual physical representation -- pages? of what?). This will thereby eliminate: word processors, spreadsheets, form based systems, all traditional database apps, etc. and will unify all textual communication into a single medium (no more e-mail vs. IM vs. Facebook vs. blogs vs. microblogs vs. forums vs. mailing lists, etc.) Everything will become at once simpler and yet more powerful. That is the future of computing. I've left out some details. :-P
But, alas, as much as I like to dream, I leave readers with one parting token of wisdom: "Even in the future, nothing works!"
Ok in regards to the talk-to-text software... it exists. This isn't a much of a leap to make in your fantasies, because it's here. It's been here. Coincidently, I ran across Dragon voice-to-speech recognition software today.
ReplyDeleteWeb-site:
http://nuance.com/dragon/index.htm
Demo Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3DhnpLIKCQ
Yes people (JON) it's Dragon 11, not Dragon 1. My personal opinion about this is that it's a niche market. I would never be sitting in my cubical at work "writing" a computer program via talking. Nor would I sit in a coffee shop talking chatting online with all the world to hear me. Nor would I sit at home watching a TV show and talk to my computer. Maybe women could multi-task enough to talk to their computer and watch a TV show, but the male population cannot talk and do anything else I'm pretty sure.
So... when would this ever be useful? Probably if you were in an office by yourself or sitting at home by yourself. Like a manager or a stay-at-home blogger/writer. In a busy, people-filled environment this wouldn't be very practical because you might pick up other peoples' voice. But for people that have the need, the software is out there, so everyone can stop "wishing" and fork out the cash to make their dreams come true.
Negative Nancy or Realistic Rupert?
More to come later...
Dude, you've clearly, clearly never used the software that's "out there", "ready to go". Admittedly I haven't either, but I've talked to several people who have tried it and said that it's terrible. It makes a ton of errors. You don't something that types for you that makes a ton of typos.
ReplyDeleteI also admit it is easier to think of professional applications rather than personal ones. So what? That's still important. Take the medical field, like BB.ink said above. Right now, doctors and nurses spend tons of time with data input. They talk to a patient, WRITE down info, then later TYPE the info they've already written. Or a patient writes it in the waiting room, where it is later typed.
Time's super valuable in the medical field, so this is really dumb. Now, you might think that by carrying around a laptop-like device, the doctors and nurses could cut out the middle writing step and the case is solved. Sure, that would probably help, but wouldn't it be even better if they whole conversation were recorded and THE TECHNOLOGY EXISTED to seamlessly (i.e. no errors) take the audio from that conversation, and put all the data straight into the database.
And in terms of personal life, even if the technology exists, it isn't available the way you're claiming.
Suppose I want to text and drive at the same time? Too bad. It's not only illegal, it's idiotic. But if I could just say to my phone "Text to Adam: you're a d.b. Send text." My problems would be solved! (One could make the argument, if you're going to do a voice-to-text text, just call the person. But that's dumb, because if you're going to do ANY text you could call the person; clearly texts have advantages.)
Anyway, stop hating my dreams.
Jon, I have actually had a phone that could do voice-to-text, but as you say, the technology was HORRIBLE.
ReplyDeleteI have heard from people that there is at least one talk-to-text computer program out there that works really well. I have not had a chance to try it yet, so I cannot say one way or the other.
Slightly off-topic, but I wonder about the privacy concerns with recording a private doctor appointment.
Yeah, I'm sure they could figure something out in which once the data is entered into the system (and scanned for accuracy?), the audio file is deleted.
ReplyDeleteNot to go too far down the "privacy rabbit hole" but I don't doubt they could manage the technical aspect of deleting the file. I doubt that "society" would trust the doctors to actually delete the files. It's like how the government promises to keep information about citizens private, but then it just happens to end up getting shared between tons of agencies and then leaked into the public domain.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the threat of being sued for breaking doctor-patient confidentiality could be enough of a deterrent to prevent the technology from being used. While doctors could have you sign a waiver or something, people may choose to go to doctors that don't record patients.
Anyways, my point in all of this is just to say that even if the technology is there already (or will be in the near future), there are unfortunately some legal and non-legal barriers that could prevent its widespread adoption.
Voice recognition technology research plateaued around the turn of the century with about 80% accuracy on an untrained database. Problem is, even with the best algorithms we have today, throwing more CPU cycles and larger recognition databases at the problem results in no gains in accuracy. We're at the point where the only way forward is artificial intelligence, particularly the sub-field of Natural Language Processing. (hugely interesting, btw.. hit up Wikipedia to see why this is so complicated!) It is generally accepted that the "general-purpose voice recognition" that everybody really wants (ie. being able to talk naturally to a computer without perfect pronunciation, etc.) is considered a "Strong AI" problem. (ie. requiring human-level AI)
ReplyDeleteHowever, short of strong AI, it is more feasible to create a limited-domain AI, such that the computer can reason about a specific area, such as the language commonly used in the setting of healthcare. I do like the "doctor's notes" idea. If the audio was kept alongside the text, ambiguities could be resolved by listening to the original. A good interface would allow you to point to the text you want to hear audio for. As for privacy, this is a problem with ANY medical records. And, right now, there basically is no privacy other than the legal system. I assert that the solution is for patients to keep their own records -- in encrypted form other than basics like blood type, allergies, etc. needed during an emergency.
The biggest area I see voice recognition being useful is actually for simple commands to an "always listening" computer you carry. In this case, a low fidelity solution is acceptable, as long as the commands aren't too dangerous if wrong. So yeah, the texting option is possible, because people expect texts to be full of errors anyhow. Actually, my phone already does this, but it's a bit quirky still. (latest Google Android release) Home automation applications are pretty obvious.. "watch the Steelers game" turns on your A/V equipment and tunes the correct channel, etc.
Chris G, good info, but I disagree still that there is no increased privacy concern to having a talk-to-text device in a medical room.
ReplyDeleteExample: A man comes into the doctor's office. During the appointment, he admits to something illegal, as it is important information in diagnosing the illness.
Case #1 (written medical records): Doctor only needs to write down medically-significant details, and can avoid anything incriminating from ever being recorded.
Case #2 (audio record): The patient's confession of the illegal activity will be caught on tape, so to speak, and it does not take too much imagination to picture the Feds seizing medical records in a criminal case.
This MAY be farfetched, but it is just one of many instances where there COULD be cause for privacy concerns. And as we know, even the slightest cause for concern will manifest itself in some people showing major concern for the issue. It also hurts doctors, because patients may be less willing to admit to something that is medically-significant, but morally or legally wrong.
Again, my point is just to say that, even if the technology becomes available, there certainly are some very real barriers to implementing it widely in the "real world". After all, the whole premise of this blog post was imagining the world in the future.
Yeah, I'm just going to say again, if there's a policy -- or for that matter a law -- that ensures the audio file is deleted promptly, I don't think this is much of an issue.
ReplyDeleteBut suppose for whatever reason we are all conspiracy theorists and we don't trust Big Brother, so we refuse to disclose pertinent information or something. In this case, we could implement an alternate system (which would still save a lot of time) in which the doctor holds a device that has a push-button record system. He can turn off the recorder at any time, or, for that matter, only turn it on to speak into it the medical data that needs to be on file.
Has anybody thought about the energy needs for any of what you are talking about? Future technology will be farms that are designed to capture the warmth and waste created by the animals and cycle it into the production of food. We will need very good communication technology so we can minimize the energy spent on transportation.
ReplyDelete